Water and CO2 - the future for China's 5-year plan

In what appears to be great timing the Chinese government has just announced that water and CO2 will be priorities for the next 5 year plan.

This matches perfectly with news this week that a one-day workshop sponsored by EDF on "The Global Impact of China's Energy Demand" has been confirmed to be run in Paris in June.

More details to come but it promises to be an interesting session.

Apologies for posting the whole article but (1) it is an excellent summary and (2) I will need to refer to it on a regular basis and what better way to record the text than to blog it here.

Water, CO2 The Priorities For China's 5-Year Plan [Planet Ark]

Tackling environmental problems from carbon emissions to water pollution will be a key focus of a new five-year plan that China will launch during its annual parliament session starting on Saturday.

The plan for 2011-2015 will include new directives aimed at reversing the damage done by 30 years of untrammeled growth, and it will also aim to give a fillip to clean and renewable energy.

The challenges were put in stark focus in an essay by environment minister Zhou Shengxian on Monday.

"The depletion, deterioration and exhaustion of resources and the deterioration of the environment have become serious bottlenecks constraining economic and social development," he wrote.

China, the world's biggest source of climate change-inducing greenhouse gases, will put the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions at the top of its agenda.

But those same commitments could also spell bad news for China's vulnerable river systems with hydropower capacity set to surge by 140 gigawatts by 2015. That's nearly three times Australia's total power generation capacity.

Beijing has already pledged to reduce carbon intensity -- the amount of CO2 produced per unit of economic growth -- by 40-45 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels.

It also aims to raise the share of renewables to 15 percent of the country's total energy mix.

"The targets will not be as ambitious as we hoped, because the 2020 targets aren't that ambitious," said Ailun Yang, China campaign manager with Greenpeace.

"I would put much more emphasis on the detailed measures, which are much more important than the targets themselves."

Detailed targets will emerge in the coming months as individual industries issue their own five-year plans.

The government wants to clean up heavy industries such as steel and aluminum, encourage non-fossil fuels, cut nitrogen oxide emissions and improve water and air quality.

BUSINESS AS USUAL?

Enforcing new restrictions and targets, especially for CO2 emissions, will test the central government's clout.

Premier Wen Jiabao said last month China would cut energy and carbon intensity by 16-17 percent over the 2011-2015 period, less of a challenge than the 17.3 percent figure suggested last year.

Experts say energy intensity -- the amount used per unit of GDP -- needs to fall by 20 percent to achieve an 18 percent cut in CO2 intensity, but Wen did not make the distinction.

Yang Fuqiang, director of global climate solutions at the Worldwide Fund for Nature, said cutting CO2 intensity by less than 17 percent was little more than "business as usual."

"There is a game being played by the central and local governments, and if the central government adopts 16 percent they will lose their authority because it shows that 'government orders don't go beyond Zhongnanhai'," he said, referring to the Chinese Communist Party headquarters in Beijing.

Yang said a 16 percent cut could allow China to hit the 40 percent carbon intensity goal by 2020, while an 18 percent cut would take it toward the higher 45 percent target.

A commitment to use market mechanisms in the fight against climate change is also expected, with a number of provinces keen to launch pilot emissions trading programs. Detailed plans will emerge later this year.

Analysts have said China might consider an absolute energy consumption cap over the 2011-2015 period, and draft policies to restrict coal production to 3.6-3.8 billion tons by 2015 have also been leaked to the local press. Provinces such as Guangdong might impose their own energy caps to stimulate city-to-city emission trading, but government researchers have dismissed the idea of a national limit.

"There are no such plans," said Zheng Shuai, researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, but added some academics have proposed Beijing implement a limit on fossil fuel use without imposing an overall cap on energy use.

"This is more realistic because it will allow and encourage the use of renewable energy," Zheng said.

DAM NATION

China is desperate to improve its depleted, contaminated rivers, which have been blighted by a spate of burst tailings dams, untreated chemical discharges and plant explosions in the past five years.

In 2009, nearly 20 percent of the length of China's major rivers and lakes were judged unfit even for irrigating crops, according to government figures.

Environment minister Zhou said Beijing will aim to cut 2007 levels of heavy metal discharges in key regions and industries by 15 percent in the next five years.

"We understand thousands of key heavy metal polluters will be put under tightened monitoring and this is important," said Ma Jun of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, a non-government organization that monitors water pollution.

"But there is a lack of transparency and we believe public scrutiny could generate the motivation to cut their emissions."

China will also push for more water conservation, imposing stricter water consumption standards heavy industry.

"We expect to see more action on that but I still believe that the first step is pollution," said Ma.

"The huge volume of wastewater discharge is destroying our very limited clean water resources and if we continue to allow that we cannot talk about recycling and conservation."

But the commitment to cleaning up rivers could be undermined if binding carbon targets lead to a renewed drive for large hydropower dams and reservoirs throughout China.

The five-year energy sector plan is expected to back controversial hydropower plants on China's Nu River, also known as the Salween. Previously untouched rivers in Tibet may be next.

"We need to realize that large hydro by itself has such a large environmental impact that it shouldn't be considered a renewable energy," said Ma.

"In 2004, China overtook the United States as the world's largest hydropower capacity but the plan is to more than triple that by 2020 -- that means in many of our rivers there won't be running water.

Is ecological economics becoming a "post-normal" science

Some paper titles cannot be ignored especially when I am not entirely clear what it means. The title suggests that ecological economics is (1) a science and (2) normal.

So far so good. Ecological economics is a normal science (not a social science?).

However, now we have to worry that it is becoming post-normal or perhaps that is a good thing. It appears to hinge on the empirical content of the paper. A regression in a paper appears to be post-normal.

In that case, all my EE papers have contributed to this big push into post-normality and now I feel a little guilty. In fact my et al. from the previous post is an EE paper.

Time to investigate further.

A bibliometric account of the evolution of EE in the last two decades: Is ecological economics (becoming) a post-normal science?

Manuela Castro e Silvaa and Aurora A.C. Teixeira

Abstract

In ecological economics the debate on formalism and formalization has been addressed in the context of a lively discussion on ecological economics as a ‘post-normal’ (versus ‘normal’) science. Using ecological economics (EE) as a ‘seed’ journal and applying bibliometric techniques to all (2533) the articles published in EE from January 1989 to December 2009, we analyze the evolution of the field of ecological economics aiming to shed light on this debate. We observe the predominance (and increased relevance) of certain research topics: ‘Methodological issues’, ‘Policies, governance and institutions’ and ‘Valuation’. Moreover, ‘Collective action’, ‘Technical change and the environment’ and ‘Values’ stand as emergent themes of research. Finally, we note that ecological economics experienced an ‘empirical turn’ reflected in a shift away from exclusively formalized papers towards exclusively empirical and, to a larger extent, ‘formal and empirical’ ones. The combination of the prominent and emergent topics and the ‘empirical turn’ mirrors the increasing awareness among researchers in the field of the need to address a key specificity of ecological economics — the interdependence of the economic, biophysical and social spheres. On this basis, we argue that at least through the lens of EE, ecological economics has evolved towards a post-normal science.

Keywords: Ecological economics; Bibliometrics; Research trends; Methodology; Post-normal science

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"Environmental Substance Abuse"

A truly astonishing piece of work in which the author Mark Atlas proceeds to do a pretty convincing hatchet job on a very large number of applied "environmental economics" papers (550) including one of mine :-( (I am part of an et al).

It is hard to argue with much in the 715 pages (and over 4,000 footnotes) from what I have read so far.

Anyone doing applied environmental economics has to at least attempt to read some of this report.

Thanks to Aquanomics (a very fine new "...nomics" to add to my collection) for the hat tip.

The Aquanomics article on this topic is certainly worth a read for its "academic bun fight" report.

It is very impressive that Atlas went to the lengths he has gone to in this paper (and his post reported in Aquanomics). This paper deserves to be read by anyone purporting to be an environmental economist.

Back to the report......where does something like this get published? A little long for JEEM unfortunately.

My papers will never be the same again...

Environmental Substance Abuse: The Substantive Competence of Social Science Empirical Environmental Policy Research[LARGE PDF]

Mark K. Atlas
affiliation not provided to SSRN
December 22, 2010

Abstract:
In a 2002 article, social science scholars criticized legal scholars for violating empirical analysis principles in law review articles. Their review of hundreds of empirical law review articles led to a pervasively grim assessment of these articles and their authors, concluding that empirical legal scholarship was deeply flawed, with serious problems of inference and methodology everywhere. In essence, the 2002 article argued that although legal scholars’ articles might be substantively competent (i.e., knowledgeable about the law and facts), they were, at best, methodologically incompetent.

This Report reverses the 2002 article’s focus, assessing the substantive competence of social science empirical research articles, ignoring their methodological competence. This Report focuses on about 550 social science articles from peer-reviewed journals since the 1960’s that used quantitative research to study United States domestic environmental policies and practices. The 2002 article examined aspects of law review articles at which legal researchers might be deficient but at which social science researchers should be competent. This Report does the opposite by focusing on what legal researchers should be most expert – determining the relevant laws, government policies, and facts. Consequently, just as the 2002 article evaluated whether law review articles violated empirical research rules, this Report evaluates whether social science environmental policy articles were incorrect or incomplete about the relevant laws, government policies, or facts.

Although the 2002 article concluded that every empirical law review article was fatally flawed methodologically, this Report does not conclude that every social science environmental policy article was fatally flawed substantively. However, the overwhelming majority of those articles were substantively uninformed, amateurish, shoddy, and/or deceptive. Anyone with a basic understanding of the environmental laws, policies, facts, and/or data relevant to any particular article would conclude after only a brief review that the article was seriously flawed. Unfortunately, social science journals publishing environmental policy articles have been like runaway trains of invalid research that keep picking up new passengers. This Report explains in detail the substantive problems with each of these articles.

JEL Classifications: K23, K32, K41, K42, Q25, Q28
Working Paper Series

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Ancient Megadroughts

I have not come across the term "megadroughts" before but I like it.

The findings to not surprise me - small changes in the climate could be enough to set off a series of feedback effects that result in large changes in local climate and of course lead to "megadroughts".

Ancient Megadroughts Preview Warmer Climate: Study [PlanetArk]

Ancient megadroughts that lasted thousands of years in what is now the American Southwest could offer a preview of a climate changed by modern greenhouse gas emissions, researchers reported on Wednesday.

The scientists found these persistent dry periods were different from even the most severe decades-long modern droughts, including the 1930s "Dust Bowl." And they determined that these millennial droughts occurred at times when Earth's mean annual temperature was similar to or slightly higher than what it is now.

These findings tally with projections by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others, according to study author Peter Fawcett of the University of New Mexico. The results were published in the current edition of Nature.

"The IPCC model suggests that when you warm the climate, you'll see extended droughts in this part of the world and this is what the paleo record seems to be telling us," Fawcett said in a telephone interview. "When you've got past temperatures that were at or above today's conditions, conditions got drier."

The U.S. Southwest has seen steep population growth over the last century, with population increasing by 1,500 percent from 1900 to 1990, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The total U.S. population grew 225 percent over the same period.

The settlement of this area depended, as all human settlements do, on access to water. There would clearly be less water available in a megadrought.

EARTH'S ORBIT AND GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS

Megadroughts in the past were caused by subtle changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, which were also responsible for periodic ice ages. If these orbital changes were the only influence on the planet's climate, Earth should be heading into a cool period, Fawcett said in a telephone interview.

However, recent temperature statistics indicate that is not the case. The decade that ended last year was the hottest since modern record-keeping began in 1880. The previous decade, 1991-2000, was next-warmest and 1981-1990 was third-warmest.

Emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide help trap heat near Earth's surface and could be influencing the natural orbital cycle that would dictate a cooling period.

To figure out just how long these megadroughts lasted, and what happened during them, scientists took samples from a dried lake bed in northern New Mexico called the Valles Caldera. They analyzed these sediments for biochemical signs of drought, ranging from which trees and shrubs grew and how much calcium was in the cracked mud in the dried lake bottom.

Looking at records going back more than a half-million years, they also developed a technique to determine temperature in the ancient past by looking at signs left by soil bacteria, Fawcett said.

The fats in the walls of these bacteria change their structure in response to temperature changes, he said, and act like a "tape recorder" for antique temperatures.

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Smoke in the (Tariff) Water

Although more of a "globalisation" that "globalisation and the environment" blog post the question has to be asked - did these authors mean to title this paper after the well known British hard rock group Deep Purple's track that goes my the name "smoke on the water". The introduction to this song is prety much the first thing anyone every learns on the guitar.

If so, calling a recent World Economy paper "Smoke IN the water" represents a fundamental mistake.

However, they almost make up for it with a footnote that says "Nevertheless, the views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Deep Purple."

Other than that it reprents a good effort although still not close to a recent paper in the AER called "Panic on the Streets of London" by Steve Machin and co-authors named after the well known Smiths track of exactly the SAME name.

Smoke in the (Tariff) Water

Liliana Foletti1, Marco Fugazza2, Alessandro Nicita2
and Marcelo Olarreaga3

1. INTRODUCTION

DURING the Great Depression, protectionism spread rapidly. By 1933,
world trade was only a third of what it was in 1929. Part of this slump had
to do with the decline in economic activity, but several studies estimate the contributionof protectionist forces somewhere between 25 and 50 per cent of the
total decline in world trade.1 The protectionist response started in the United
States with the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act passed in June 1930, which raised
tariffs by 23 per cent according to Irwin (1998). Many countries retaliated.
According to Madsen (2001), the world average effective tariff (the ratio of the
value of import duties and import value) increased from 9 per cent in 1929 to 20
per cent by 1933, with values as high as 30 per cent in Germany and the UK

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Vampire spiders, the smell of human feet and blood as an aphrodisiac

The law of natural selection has resulted in some pretty impressive "specialisations". The spider that lives on the mosquitoes that feed on humans (after the insect has itself fed on humans) is a pretty impressive specialism.

For applied economists who are forever thinking about causation (and the direction of causation) this is a good one.

The spider is attracted to the smell of human feet because that is where the mosquito that feeds on human blood will be hanging out. The spider then eats the blood filled insect thus indirectly feeding on human blood but having to go through a middle man. This in turn makes them irresistible to the opposite sex.

If the spider could feed prior to the mosquito human feast it would be worth filling one's room with them but given its post feed there seems to be little benefit in such a policy given they are prone to jumping all over the place.

I wonder if I am alone in finding this kinda cool.

Why the Vampire Spider is Attracted to the Smell of Human Feet

Crouching on the ground, it sniffs the air looking for the scent of a human foot. Finally it is in luck, it gets a hint of what it is looking for and tracks it, ready to pounce on its prey. Wait though... the prey is not the foot but the mosquito that is feeding on it! Most jumping spiders find their prey with their incredible eyesight but this one uses its olfactory organs instead.

Especially drawn to malarial mosquitoes, Evarcha culicivora goes for our blood after the mosquito has filled its belly. In an experiment carried out by Fiona Cross and Robert Jackson of the University of Canterbury, New Zealand, they discovered that the scent of human feet makes them stay longer.

They found that by blowing the scent of socks into test tubes that the spiders were in (and allowed to leave), the ones that had socks worn at least 12 hours by volunteers stayed an extra 10-30 minutes than the ones who were presented with the scent of unworn socks.

In a devilish way this spider is our friend as it goes after the dangerous and annoying mosquito; but they are both drawn to the smell of our blood. In fact for the jumping spider in this case, once they have fed on the blood they become irresistible to the opposite sex so it is an aphrodisiac as well! Well they do say it takes all kinds to make a world. It seems they have worked out that places with the smell of human feet are likely to be good places to find their prey, waiting until it has fed on us first before pursuing it. So, if you find yourself in Kenya and a spider is looking at you curiously don't run necessarily, just be glad that it is after the mosquitoes feeding off you.

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Economic Journal - natural resources papers

A series of interesting papers related to the resource curse that came out in the current issue of the Economic Journal.

Is it true as many suspect, that the greater the oil reserves of a country the less democratic it it likely to be?

ARTICLES

Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies (pages 1–30)
Frederick van der Ploeg and Anthony J. Venables


The Long Term Consequences of Resource-Based Specialisation (pages 31–57)
Guy Michaels

The Quality of Political Institutions and the Curse of Natural Resources (pages 58–88)
Antonio Cabrales and Esther Hauk


More Oil, Less Democracy: Evidence from Worldwide Crude Oil Discoveries (pages 89–115)
Kevin K. Tsui

Market Power in an Exhaustible Resource Market: The Case of Storable Pollution Permits (pages 116–144)
Matti Liski and Juan-Pablo Montero

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